Steelers vs. Packers
This game has been referred to as a scalpers dream, and it's a great point. These are two of the most followed teams nationwide, with fantastic traditions. The Steelers have won more Lombardis than anyone else, six. The Packers (henceforth known as the Those Fucking Cheese Heads, TFCH) have the most NFL titles, twelve (3 SBs, and the trophy is only named after their coach). Both teams have fan bases that travel well, and who wouldn't want to leave Wisconsin this time of year, especially with the blizzard. This has the makings for a phenomenal atmosphere in JerryWorld. We might actually have a Super Bowl in which the attendees actually care about the game, very exciting. Add that to the unintentional comedy of fat Cheese Heads dancing to Fergie at half-time, and you have a real winner. All this and we haven't even gotten to the actually football game, which looks like it'll be a pretty exciting bout. Now let's breakdown what might actually happen, looking at the individual matchups and how it'll affect the game:
Matchup 1: Marukice Pouncey's Ankle vs. BJ Raji
The most important question going into this game is the health of the Steelers, most notably their young center. After breaking his ankle two weeks ago in the first quarter against the Jets, news has leaked that Pouncey is off crutches and planning to play. If he does, he'll become the youngest Steeler ever to play in a Super Bowl, at 21 years, 197 days (the second youngest ever, Jamal Lewis). More importantly than that fun trivia is that he is the best Steelers OL, and no one knows just how capable he'll be on that untested ankle. The Steelers OL has been decimated by injuries at other spots as well, and the new group of guys that will be assembled has to block Raji, Matthews and whatever blitzes Capers and TFCHs decide to bring. Although this line played its best game in the AFC championship, this front seven in going to be a much tougher test than the Jets were. As with all new OLines, I imagine that the Steelers will try to run block as it requires less communication than pass blocking. Given the skill of TFCHs rush/blitz work and Roethlisberger's tendency to hold onto the football, he will get hit on passing plays. If the Steelers can limit those hits, they will greatly improve their chance of winning. Consequently, I think that the Steelers will run the ball (added bonus of keeping Rodgers off the field) and if Pouncey or his backup Lundquivst can keep Raji on the line or moving backwards, the Steelers will have success at it, and will win the game.
Matchup 2: Bulaga/Cliffton vs. Harrison/Woodley
Dick LeBeau is nothing short of a genius, and giving him two of the best and most versatile OLBs is nearly unfair. TFCHs have not run the ball well all year, and no one can run the ball on the Steelers. Plus Bulaga, a rookie, has had issues with elite pass rushers this year, giving up TFLs and holding penalties (see Peppers, Julius). This means two things. One, take the great cross sport bet of Lee Westwood's final round Sunday, -14, over Stark's total yards. Two, TFCHs will start throwing all the time. The rushing of Woodley (a playoff monster) and Harrison (an actual monster) will keep TFCH's tackles busy all day, and probably require double teams. If the tackles struggle to keep these two off Aaron Rodgers then more double teams will be directed outside, allowing space for the famous LeBeau inside twist (bringing Farrior and Timmons on an X pattern through the A-gaps), or require blocking help from TEs and backs. As we saw in the horrible NFC title game, the media favorite, Rodgers, is not other-worldly when he is pressured. He is very athletic, and capable of escaping, but he won't be able to outrun the Steeler LBs with consistency, and will begin getting flustered and lose his surgical precision, leading to a Steelers win.
Matchup 3: Steeler pass catchers vs. TFCH Secondary
It is an unfortunate fact that TFCHs have the best secondary in football. The corner combination of Woodson/Williams/Shields is scary good, and the safeties are capable. I believe that against any Steelers formation that includes a third pass catcher, TFCHs will bring on nickelback Shields. This gives them the best matchups, in my opinion, putting Williams on Ward, Woodson on TE Miller or the slot receiver, and Shields on Wallace with safety help over the top. Tramon Williams can and will shut down Hines Ward (over/under for catches at 3.5, take the under for -135, good defenses have shut him down all year). Lining up Woodson on the inside receiver allows him to take away Miller, who went for 118 yards last time these two played (TEs have been a problem for TFCHs all year, Heath is going for good value at +2500 for MVP). The other benefit of an inside set Woodson, is his blitz. He is the best blitzing secondary member in the NFL, and with a porous and banged up Steeler OL, expect to see him coming on the rush a lot (TFCHs blitzed corners 16 times against The Bears). If he has a decent day keeping the slot/TE controlled, and can get to Roethlisberger and actually tackle him, TFCHs can win, and Woodson should, but won't get the MVP.
Matchup 4: Rodgers vs. Roethlisberger, Intangibles
With the current QB driven league we're in, a QB needs to lead. Both these guys seem to have their teams supporting them, not the other way around. Both these guys save inconsistent OLs from sacks with their own styles of play. Both these guys can make the big throws and control drives with the game on the line. This game is gonna be close, and which ever QB makes the plays in the tough spots (3rd and long, 4th quarter) will win the game. Rodgers has been scarily effective, but when he gets into 2nd and 3rd and long, he has been less effective (not bad, but less effective) as the defenses bring more pressure. If the Steelers prevent big 1st down plays, and slow the running game, we'll see a lot of these situations. We watched Rodgers lead TFCHs to only 14 offensive points against a good defense in Chicago, with half of that coming on a freak first drive sequence. The Steelers won't get burned out of the gate like that, and are a better defense overall, not an ideal matchup for Mr. Championship Belt (Polamalu's health will have a lot to say for Aaron's effectiveness and the outcome of this game). To counter Rodgers will probably have a WR slant/screen/hook to the Ike Taylor's side on most plays because he tends to play off the ball more. If this option is open regularly, there will be a lot of 2nd and shorts, and Rodgers can dissect the Steelers with his pass/run dual threat (you could also see a Deion Branch like SB MVP from Driver/Jennings/Jones, but lets face it, if TFCHs win, Rodgers will have had to play well and will be MVP).
On the other side, Roethlisberger is a perfect QB for beating TFCHs. He can manage drives, get the offense going by bouncing out of sacks and working play action to keep the defense honest and run game viable. Working long drives will keep TFCHs off the field, forcing them to pass all the time, a better matchup for the Steelers D (The Lions beat TFCHs in week 13, 7-3 thanks to 17 3rd downs, meaning long drives). He rarely makes mistakes that cost his team games. We saw the Bears put on a classic example of how to not play TFCHs at QB with Cutler's INTs and Collins being fucking incompetent (honestly, who put him in? How was he still 2nd string? Didn't Hanie show he was better in every game the two played this year? AAAAAHHH, but I digress). We also saw how an efficient QB can win against TFCHs (Hanie's 2 TDs and comeback win before he went all Cutler, and threw into the insanely lucky Dom Capers call putting Raji in coverage, the only unlucky break the Bears had all year, what miserable timing. Now I'm in tears, and digressing again, my apologies). It's a safe bet that Big Ben will be more effective than Cutler's wild arm, and give the Steelers a good chance to win. Otherwise, it'd be awesome to see Charlie Batch come in and save the day, Hanie style.
Interesting aside: is there any place other than sports where you can make everyone forget how miserable a human you are? Look at these events, Big Ben rapes TWO girls, Kobe adulters/rapes, Ray Lewis murders, Favre sexts, LT does tons of drugs and gets prostitutes. Easily the worst offenses are Big Ben, Kobe and Ray Lewis, yet they receive the least flack for it because they win (and post POY or MVP seasons). If Favre had his sexting scandal last year, no one would have given a shit. But he sucked this year, so that's all we cared about. LT hasn't played in years, so there was no winning to counteract his crimes. When he was the best pass rusher of all time, no one gave a shit that he did coke before games. Can you imagine if the rest of the world worked this way. 'Well maybe you did rape and kill dozens of children, but you sure write some damn good codes/programs, so who really cares about that other shit?' I'll be honest, this whole thing makes me think the Football Gods might kick Roethlisberger in the balls this game, unless they were appeased by his 4 game suspension and 'new look on life'.
Matchup 5: McCarthy vs. Tomlin
Tomlin wins. No contest. Just better, already has a SB appearance and win, doesn't freak out in close games, simply cooler. Also, there is a correlation between Fit vs. Fat coaches in big games, Fit wins.
What does this all mean?????
I like the Steelers to beat TFCHs 20-17. It's going to be an amazing game. You may begin dissecting my analysis and biased opinions.
PS, Does DiMB wanna comp me to the Super Bowl for live game coverage? Cause I'll do it.
